The report Key Data for LATAM is elaborated by ATREVIA’s analysis and research team in order to provide the main information to understand the political and business reality of Latin America.
During this period the most outstanding facts were:
- In Argentina, Mauricio Macri’s government, after the financial storm in May, believed to have found calm thanks to the agreement with the IMF. However, the situation in Argentina is still unresolved because the country not only suffers an economic problem but also political credibility.
- In Brazil, uncertainties predominate more than certainties in light of the October presidential elections. With Lula da Silva 90% excluded, there will be a runoff election, in the ballot there will be a center candidate (Marina, Alckmin or Meirelles) against a rupturist candidate (Bolsonaro) or who tries to channel the protest vote (Hadad and Gomes).
- In Colombia, the first nomination of the new government has been that of Carrasquilla as new Treasury minister, this should be interpreted as a clear message of “trust” to the markets. The key is how the new government is going to be able to combine this commitment with orthodoxy and the liberalist and open-minded reformism claiming of being a social government.
- The chances that Ecuador, like Argentina, will end up going to the IMF to finance themselves are increasing, especially as it emerges as the only viable solution to address the two core problems of the country: fiscal deficit and external debt.
- In Mexico, Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s government is not going to shift drastically to the left nor fall in the short term, in the populism of reckless measures, in the economic arena. López Obrador was, as head of the DF government, a pragmatic and orthodox man; the backbone of his future administration is full of individuals with moderate profiles. Neither the international nor domestic contexts are conducive to providing the necessary tools to make use of unbridled social spending and patronage.
- Peru grows despite the disagreements of its political class to agree on a reform plan. The lack of structural reforms during the governments of Ollanta Humala and Pedro Pablo Kuczynski is now coupled by the weakness of the government headed by Martín Vizcarra.
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