Key Data for Latin America – May 2018

The report Key Data for LATAM is elaborated by ATREVIA’s analysis and research team in order to provide the main information to understand the political and business reality of Latin America.

During this period the most outstanding facts were:

  • In Argentina, the rise in tariffs for public services will become a test of fire for Macri´s government: if the coalition that sustains it triumphs, it will be strengthened thanks to the internal consensus reached and its strategy of gradual reforms will gain legitimacy.
  • In Colombia, although the second round is an unknown and a new distribution of votes, the Colombian ballot is expected to be fought between Duque and Petro although with clear favoritism of the Uribist. This will channel the vote of the right, center right and rejection of Petro, seen by the electorate as “radical” and disruptive.
  • Brazil has placed itself in a period of volatility and unpredictability five months before the presidential elections. Within that sea of ​​vagueness, it is possible to foresee that the main victim is the reformist agenda. This is paralyzed in the short term – until the elections – and very dependent on the legislative power of the future government.
  • In Mexico, two months after the elections, López Obrador continues and, above all, consolidates as an indisputable favorite. Given the weakness of Zavala and Meade’s little appeal, the anti-López Obrador vote is going to be, at least in part, around Anaya, which will hardly be enough to let him reach first place.
  • In Peru, the succession of weak governments without support since 2011 has caused a reformist paralysis in the country that has resulted in a loss of economic dynamism. In fact, the great challenge of Martín Vizcarra’s new government, is to stabilize the political situation in the short- term and resume the path of structural reforms in the mid-term.
  • In Venezuela, the victory of Chavism must not be discounted. The question is whether the opposition, which partly refuses to participate, will finally end up going to punish the government and will vote for Henri Falcón.

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