The report Key Data for LATAM is elaborated by ATREVIA’s analysis and research team in order to provide the main information to understand the political and business reality of Latin America.
The most outstanding facts this month are:
- Argentina is a rollercoaster of feelings, perceptions and trends. In April everything indicated that Mauricio Macri was headed for defeat by Cristina Kirchner. However, this austral winter has brought economic and political circumstances for Macri that put him in a better position for re-election.
- The plenary of the Brazilian Lower House approved the legal framework of the pension reform proposed by Jair Bolsonaro’s government, a law that will still undergo new discussions before it is sent to the Senate. This victory of the executive sends a message to bear in mind for the future of this administration: without politics there are no reforms.
- In Colombia, the intention of Ivan Duque’s government is to promote a revolution for Colombia, that of the “orange economy” so that at the end of its four-year term in 2022 the country will grow by more than 6%, almost twice as much as it does today. But without structural reforms the longed-for “orange revolution” will not take place and the polarization Uribism vs anti-Uribism and the lack of a legislative base to support the government have led to reformist paralysis.
- In Ecuador, Lenín Moreno’s government faces the most complex and hardest task of his administration. If it was difficult to break with Rafael Correa (2017-2018) and complex to obtain international support in the midst of the crisis (2018-2019), it is much more complex to implement structural reforms (2019-2021).
- In Mexico, apart from the fact that Carlos Urzúa’s exit from the Treasury Department should not be taken lightly, what is increasingly clear is that time is running out for López Obrador in two aspects: in the short term, to offer a viable project for Pemex, which with its unsustainable debt weakens public finances, scares off investors and undermines stability. In the mid-term, to present a plan of structural reforms that will remove Mexico not only from its weak growth (below 2%) but will allow it to avoid a possible crisis.
- Venezuela’s future does not depend so much on negotiating or not negotiating, but on what needs to be negotiated. The key issue is how and when to call elections (presidential as the opposition wants and only legislative as proposed by the ruling party) and find the design for a transition (without Maduro in power as anti-Chavism hopes and with Maduro as president and candidate as the ruling party expects).
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