Over the past month, international affairs have decisively shaped the Latin American agenda, with an intensity unusual for the region. First, the United States shook the geopolitical landscape with the capture of Nicolás Maduro on Venezuelan territory. This event forced Latin American governments to take a stance, generally with caution and nuance, depending on their ideological affinities.
In the background lies the strategy Washington is reinforcing to project its influence in a region where it has historically maintained a hegemonic political and economic role, amid growing competition with other powers.
This scenario also includes the agreement between Mercosur and the European Union, which dominated the agenda in Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Initial optimism, backed by their governments, gave way to uncertainty after the European Parliament decided to request an opinion from the Court of Justice of the European Union on its legality, which could delay ratification by up to two years.
The option of provisional application, being considered by the European Commission, would partially reactivate the pact, albeit at a high political cost. An episode that highlights the differing capacities—and willingness—of the United States and Europe to project influence in Latin America.
In parallel, a scandal involving undisclosed meetings between Peru’s interim president, José Jerí, and a Chinese businessman has strained relations with Beijing and intensified U.S. scrutiny of Chinese influence in a country where the Asian giant accounts for a third of trade and holds key strategic assets.
The United States also pressured Mexico to suspend oil supplies to Cuba, which had been in place since 2023. President Sheinbaum, who had firmly rejected the operation in Venezuela, ultimately chose to halt the shipments following an internal assessment aimed at avoiding greater friction with the Trump administration—a decision taken as the review of the USMCA moves forward.
At a more local level, political and trade tensions flared between Ecuador and Colombia after Quito imposed a 30% levy on Colombian imports, citing a lack of cooperation on border security and trade imbalances. Bogotá responded with an equivalent tariff and the suspension of electricity exports. The escalation of retaliatory measures has deepened bilateral tensions, despite efforts by the business sector to defuse the conflict.
