Latin American Keys is an informative and analytical summary regarding the political and economic situation in the Latin American region. These key takeaways, prepared monthly by ATREVIA´s Analysis and Research team, serve to be a useful tool in understanding the evolution of the political-institutional state of Latin America.
Latin America witnessed a new failed coup attempt, this time in Bolivia, following previous ones in Brazil and Peru in 2023 and 2022, respectively. Concurrently, several countries raised their GDP growth forecasts, despite widespread inflation due to rising food prices.
In contrast to Bolivia’s political instability, Peru has shown relative calm compared to previous months and recorded a notable 5.28% GDP growth in April. In a similar vein, Chile raised its growth projection for 2024. Meanwhile, in the legislature, there is debate over a pension system reform to increase state participation, although the political landscape will likely hinder its realization.
Uruguay will hold a referendum on a similar reform following the validation of signatures by the Electoral Court for this purpose. It will be a central issue for presidential candidates in the October elections, now defined after internal primaries. In neighboring Argentina, President Javier Milei achieved two victories with the Law of Bases and the May Pact, yet public opinion increasingly holds him responsible for the economic situation.
His Ecuadorian counterpart, Daniel Noboa, has also seen his popularity decline, despite remaining in favorable numbers. After gaining support for measures against organized crime, he now faces challenges such as an energy crisis, fiscal deficit, and public safety. Colombia is also aiming to reduce violence through new peace dialogues, now under a renewed government following six appointments.
New members of Mexico’s future executive were also announced after President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum revealed more appointments. Finally, the peso recovered against the dollar following the sharp devaluation in June. Meanwhile, the IMF raised Brazil’s GDP growth forecast for 2025, but inflation remains high and the Central Bank halted the interest rate reduction cycle.
