Latin American Keys is an informative and analytical summary regarding the political and economic situation in the Latin American region. These key takeaways, prepared monthly by ATREVIA´s Analysis and Research team, serve to be a useful tool in understanding the evolution of the political-institutional state of Latin America.
Commercial tensions with the United States persist following the announcement of new tariffs set to take effect on August 1. Within the region, the countries potentially most affected are: Brazil, where a 50% tariff is being imposed in response to an alleged judicial persecution of former president Jair Bolsonaro; Mexico, where trade disputes are compounded by friction over the detention of citizens on U.S. soil; and Chile, which faces yet-uncertain consequences from the copper tariff—a vital pillar of its economy.
Colombia has also experienced diplomatic strains with Washington, mainly due to President Gustavo Petro’s government drawing closer to the BRICS bloc and the suspension of extraditions involving former FARC dissidents.
Despite this complex international backdrop, economic indicators across the region remain encouraging. Paraguay has revised its GDP growth forecast upward for this year, reaching 4.4%—one of the highest rates in South America. Peru is also projecting robust expansion, having also recorded the lowest inflation in the region.
Argentina continues to make progress in controlling inflation, though it is expected to end the year at around 30%. GDP is projected to grow by 5.5%, as President Javier Milei’s government presses ahead with its public spending adjustment agenda. Similarly, Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa announced a reduction in the number of ministries and secretariats, along with the dismissal of 5,000 public employees.
Uruguay’s Central Bank surprised markets by cutting interest rates for the first time in 2025, due to a stable inflation outlook. Nonetheless, the country faces governance challenges, both in terms of executive opposition relations and internal tensions within the ruling coalition.
Friction with the United States has strengthened ties between Latin America and Europe. In recent weeks, progress has been made on commitments related to artificial intelligence, a trade agreement was signed between Mercosur and EFTA, and six Central American countries participated in the first Association Council with the EU in Brussels.
