10N: 10 Key Takeaways

After the new electoral repetition of last November 10th, the day can be summarized according to the following keys:

1. OPINION POLLS

Polls published in the last week have, on the whole, accurately predicted the outcome: the Socialists were unable to improve their results from April’s elections, the conservative Partido Popular continued making gains though hindered by the quick rise of VOX, the far-left Unidas Podemos kept its slow decline, the liberal Ciudadanos sunk and Más País, a breakaway Unidas Podemos party, failed to take off.  

2. TURNOUT

Given that the official turnout data has not been published, with the overseas votes still being tallied, the overall participation rate in this election was significantly lower than in the previous one, held back in April. In this sense, the April turnout was a high 75,75% whilst this November only 69,87% of registered voters came to the polls, with around 2 million voters who took part in April’s elections choosing to remain at home.

3. THE WINNER

The grand winner of the night was VOX, a right-wing nationalist-populist formation who managed to double its number of MPs and gain, even with a lower turnout, an additional million votes from the results obtained back in April. In some of the country’s most populated regions, such as Cadiz or Seville, it has climbed up to second place, beating the conservative and mainstream party Partido Popular who also trails behind VOX in the Catalonian regions of Gerona and Tarragona.

4. GOOD NEWS BUT LESS SO

Another, though more bittersweet winner, was the conservative Partido Popular, who gains 22 more MPs and four more percentage points of the vote-share (an additional 700.000 votes). However, expectations were high, and the Conservatives were left disappointed as they failed to inch near the 100-seat threshold that some polls predicted.

5. THE LOSER

The biggest loser from the night has been the liberal Ciudadanos, who has lost in just six months 2.5 million votes and 4 out of every 5 seats they previously held. In this sense, it seems their voters did not understand the decisions taken by the party leadership in the past months, and made it known at the polls.

6. LOSERS BUT LESS SO

Three left-wing political parties of national scope also experienced losses. The Socialists have not managed to capitalize on the return to the polls, losing 3 seats and up to 700.000 votes on the way. Meanwhile, the far-left Unidas Podemos continues with its slow, and apparently irreversible, decline holding on to half the seats from 2016. Más País, led by breakaway Unidas Podemos leader Iñigo Errejón, gains a scarce 3 MPs, far from its initial expectations.

7. CATALONIA

The political scenario in Catalonia is still highly complex, with Catalan voters electing up to 8 different political parties. Out of the 48 MPs from Catalonia, 23 belong to pro-independence parties (left-wing ERC, JxC led by dismissed leader Puigdemont and the anarchist CUP), 7 believe in a negotiated referendum (far left Catalunya En Comu Podem) and 18 are from the

Constitutionalist bloc made up of the conservative Partido Popular, the Catalonian Socialists, the nationalist populist right-wing VOX and the liberal Ciudadanos. In relation to the outcome from April’s election, the pro-independence bloc wins one more MP in detriment of constitutionalists.

8. PORK BARREL POLITICS IS HERE TO STAY

Political parties with a regional scope and not linked to nationalist demands entered Parliament last April through the Cantabrian Regional Party (PRC), with such dynamic being consolidated through the added presence in this legislature of the regional platform “Teruel Existe”, hailing from the scarcely populated Teruel and demanding better services and investments for the region. These types of parties who enact pork barrel politics prove the increased difficulty for political formations at drawing interest at a wide national level.

9. A MORE FRAGMENTED PARLIAMENT

Up to 16 parties will take their seats at the Spanish parliament from the 3^rd of December onwards, when both Upper and Lower chambers are formally constituted. Half of these parties will hold 5 seats or less, highlighting the fragmentation of the Spanish political sphere.

10. NEXT STEPS

On the 3^rd of December, the new Upper and Lower Chambers of the Spanish Parliament will be formally constituted along with the Bureaus, made up of the President, Vice-presidents and Secretaries of the Chambers. The legislature’s opening ceremony will be held before the 19^th of December, with the first round of formateur consultations with the King, in order to propose a candidate for prime minister, taking place soon after.