Germán Ríos, Senior Partner of ATREVIA, puts pen to paper on new text that has been part of the January-February issue of the journal on Foreign Policy, that analyzes the panorama facing Argentina before the composition of the new government of Alberto Fernández.
“Argentina is a country with enormous potential. It has a territorial area of 2.78 million square kilometers – the eighth biggest country in the world – and fertile land to produce food and feed more than 400 million people. It has abundant energy resources – Vaca Muerta has the second largest reserves of shale gas – and its capacity to produce renewable energy is immeasurable.
The country’s new government, led by Alberto Fernández, faces a complex economic situation and has little room for maneuver. In the short term, Argentina will have to negotiate with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) the 36-month Stand-By Agreement, approved on June 20, 2018, and reschedule the payment scheme to the institution.
Argentina’s main objective should be to reach an agreement with creditors, with the support of the IMF, to re-profile the debt, increasing repayment terms and probably maintaining the initial terms negotiated in terms of capital, currencies and interest rates. A scheme similar to that used by Uruguay after the 2002 crisis could be replicated.
The plight of the population, with a poverty rate of around 40%, cannot be overlooked. It will therefore be key to balance economic adjustments, especially fiscal adjustments, with an active social policy. In the ideal scenario, Argentina would reach an agreement with the IMF and the other creditors, begin a macroeconomic adjustment – especially on the fiscal front, to correct the deficit and make the public debt trajectory sustainable – and gain room in the budget for social policy.”
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