The report Key Data for LATAM is elaborated by ATREVIA’s analysis and research team in order to provide the main information to understand the political and business reality of Latin America.
The most outstanding facts this month are:
- In Argentina, everything points to the fact that the October elections will be marked by: 1. the presence of Cristina Kirchner, a candidate who is profiled as the most voted in the first round. 2-. A safe second round, given that neither of the two most voted candidates (possibly Macri and Cristina Kirchner) will reach either 50% or 40% with a ten point difference. And 3-. Macri’s extreme weakness due to the complex economic situation that weighs down his options.
- In the short term, Mexico and Brazil are facing a period of structural reforms. However, these will be far from the scope, depth, continuity and coherence of those in the 90s. In Brazil, because the Bolsonaro government faces major obstacles in forming a support base to give an outlet to its reformist projects. In Mexico, the problem is going to be the tensions between the need to promote the reform agenda and the government’s commitments to its social base.
- Colombia and Chile have become the last two and clearest examples of how the political blockade (the Executive versus Legislative struggle) leads to a reformist paralysis. This leads to the impossibility or difficulty of promoting structural reform measures and increases the degree of uncertainty.
- Ecuador is still in the middle of a period of political and economic transition: of struggle not yet definitively settled between the supporters of the previous government (that of Rafael Correa) and the new one (Lenín Moreno) and in the middle of a process of structural reforms to bring the country out of the economic crisis.
- In Peru, Vizcarra’s government faces a new political context characterized by weak political support and what looks like a growing social response. This weakness explains why, in all likelihood, the government headed by Vizcarra opts for prudence and for not promoting deep structural reforms as a way to avoid a loss of political and social support.
- The next president to emerge from the Panamanian elections on May 5 will have to deal with a fragmented legislature without solid majorities. This fragmentation and polarization between the country’s different political forces are the main obstacles for any administration to undertake, with the prospect of successfully solving the country’s main challenges.
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