The report Key Data for LATAM is elaborated by ATREVIA’s analysis and research team in order to provide the main information to understand the political and business reality of Latin America.
The most outstanding facts this month are:
- Economists and international organizations predict that a new crisis in the medium term (planned for 2020) looms over the international economy. A possible deceleration in 2019, would mean a crisis in 2020, if this actually happens. Latin American countries, many of them already burdened by high fiscal deficits, will face this possible crisis, as well as dealing with their growing and high external debts.
- In Argentina, everything points to the re-election of Macri. if his rival were Cristina Kirchner and a very close election, if the current president were to run against another non-Kirchner Peronist candidate. The truth is that Macri’s options will depend on who his rival is (Cristina Kirchner or Sergio Massa) and whether he manages to control inflation (it is estimated that it would fall from 47% in 2018 to 27%), avoiding uncontrolled increases in the dollar and if the foreseeable great harvest of this year (soybean mainly) manages to stimulate the economy.
- In Brazil, after the first weeks of Jair Bolsonaro’s government, some conclusions can be drawn. In the first place, the Government is in a learning stage. Second, the structural reforms are waiting for a complex negotiation in the Legislative where the government does not have a majority. And, thirdly, on foreign policy, Bolsonaro’s Brazil already exhibits a clear alignment with the US and wishes to introduce deep reforms in Mercosur.
- In Ecuador, the Government is laying the groundwork for an agreement with the IMF, which will entail a stabilization program greater than the one applied up to now.
- In Mexico, one of the great obstacles that López Obrador’s government will face is going to be the resistance that the vested interests and the extended networks of corruption oppose to its reforms. That is what is happening in the case of the president’s crusade against the “huachicoleo” (the theft of fuel in the Pemex oil pipelines).
- At the start of 2019, the events in Venezuela have accelerated precipitously, putting the Nicolás Maduro government at its most complex and difficult moment since the coup of 2002 to former President Hugo Chávez. The proclamation of Juan Guaidó (president of the National Assembly) as president in charge, in open challenge to Maduro, opens many questions about the short-term future of the country.
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