The report Key Data for LATAM is elaborated by ATREVIA’s analysis and research team in order to provide the main information to understand the political and business reality of Latin America.
The most outstanding facts this month are:
- Argentina is heading directly towards a new highly polarised election, a duel that has guided Argentinian politics since 2007: Kirchnerism vs. anti-Kirchnerism, embodied by Cristina Kirchner and Mauricio Macri since 2015. It is known as the “crack” that separates and tense Argentine society.
- Brazil and Mexico not only suffer from the problems derived from the global economic downturn and the difficulties faced by every government when it comes to power, but also from other types of handicaps. The sensation of improvisation in the beginning of López Obrador’s and Bolsonaro’s administrations is provoking a high sensation of insecurity and unpredictability. And as a result the economic situation of the two countries and of the macroeconomic forecasts has worsened.
- In Colombia, a little after a year of government, Ivan Duque’s government has become an isolated executive without sufficient support to promote its reform agenda. Breaking that situation is his government’s highest and most important priority.
- In Ecuador, the political weakness of the president in the legislature and the ever closer elections make it very difficult to move forward with new structural reforms: labor reform, the strengthening of institutionality in economic management or to confront the serious problem of the Ecuadorian Social Security Institute (IESS).
- In Peru, the government beat the pro-Fujimori opposition in Congress for the second time, but in reality both parties won and lost. The government because it sees a window opening for its reforms to advance. And the opposition because it avoids early elections that would have meant losing seats. It is therefore a simple truce before new rounds come.
- Guatemala’s future, whoever the next president is, is not going to be easy. The next president, if he has the political will, is going to face great difficulties to promote reforms because the lack of social consensus on them must be united by a fragmented Congress, a polarized policy and a disconnected society with a growing feeling of disaffection towards its leaders.
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