The report Key Data for LATAM is elaborated by ATREVIA’s analysis and research team in order to provide the main information to understand the political and business reality of Latin America.
The most outstanding facts this month are:
- The future of Argentina is to “survive” 2019. First, to ensure that the economy, albeit slightly, comes out of the crisis in the second half of the year. Second, to clarify the political future once elections are held. And third, the country will have to wait until 2020 to begin discussions about the second round of reforms.
- In Brazil, the pension system reform promoted by the Bolsonaro government represents the first step of what should be a set of structural changes. It is a key reform but, by itself, does not guarantee the recovery of high levels of economic growth or the containment of the deficit.
- The good moment that Iván Duque’s government is enjoying in Colombia is temporary (role in the Venezuelan crisis, suspension of dialogue with the ELN and improvement of the economy). The government’s key point and challenge is to deploy the reform program, seeking broad support and consensus in the legislature.
- In Chile, this year, which politically speaking began in March, is fundamental for Sebastián Piñera’s management. The reforms package proposed (pension, labor, education, tax, etc.) must go forward and come into play in 2019 or run the risk of being stranded by not having sufficient support in the legislature.
- In Venezuela, the war of attrition between Maduro and Guaidó may end up being unbalanced by the inability of the State to guarantee economic (hyperinflation) and social governability. The international and internal pressure placed on Guaidó would be reinforced by a growing detachment from the population before a State that does not guarantee a minimum provision of citizen security, economic stability, nor access to health, food and electricity.
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