Key Data for Latin America – May 2019

The report Key Data for LATAM is elaborated by ATREVIA’s analysis and research team in order to provide the main information to understand the political and business reality of Latin America.

The most outstanding facts this month are:

  • The serious economic problems that Brazil is dragging along make the existence of a cohesive government very urgent, with strong leadership around the president and with the capacity to build bridges with the opposition in order to reach a consensus on pending reforms. This is the main challenge for Bolsonaro, who has not yet managed to make sense of and stabilize his administration, nor take control of the management and offer a country project, or at least the reform plan beyond the pension plan.
  • It is undeniable that Sebastián Piñera’s government has the political will to promote structural reforms in Chile. What is more debatable is that it has found the right strategy to move them forward. Especially, given that it needs agreements with the opposition that has a majority in the legislative chambers.
  • In Ecuador, Lenín Moreno’s government continues to promote measures that, in some way, mean burying with the legacy of his predecessor, Rafael Correa (2007-2017).  In this sense, two new initiatives stand out: the adhesion to the Alliance of the Pacific and the call for a great national dialogue.
  • Fiscal reform becomes the necessary tool to unblock the bottlenecks that burden Mexico‘s economy. Mexico’s financial handicap is, somehow or other, behind the country’s main problems. Therefore, solving one – the fiscal one – helps to open the way to try to remedy the rest of the structural deficits. The question is whether López Obrador possesses the institutional strength and political will to undertake these transformations.
  • Venezuela is caught in a long war of attrition between the government and the position in which none has the strength to defeat the adversary. In the midst of this long war, for now in a situation of “catastrophic draw”, few actors are capable of upsetting the balance. The external powers have a limited margin of action. The key actors in Venezuela’s future are Cuba, because of the enormous influence it exerts over the Venezuelan government, and the Armed Forces. These will be the decisive factor in the Venezuelan future once they are certain that their political influence and economic interests are assured.

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