The report Key Data for LATAM is elaborated by ATREVIA’s analysis and research team in order to provide the main information to understand the political and business reality of Latin America.
During this period the most outstanding facts were:
- The greatest danger for Brazil is not so much that there is an involution (the country has institutions that can contain authoritarian temptations and even Jair Bolsonaro seems to be moderating himself) but that the new Administration fails: that the minority government goes into paralysis, in institutional confrontation or is blocked by protests and mobilizations.
- In Colombia, the difficulties of Duque and his finance minister show the current state of affairs of the administration: the weak point will be in Congress where not only does he lack a solid majority but also his own party (Centro Democrático), and its leader, former president Álvaro Uribe, have their own autonomous agenda with respect to the president.
- In Mexico, the latest decisions and announcements by Andrés Manuel López Obrador indicate that his Administration will be marked by distrust between López Obrador and the markets; volatility and the mixture of contradictory measures (favorable to legal security and others seeking popular support rather than investment stability).
- The worst thing that can be said about Venezuela is that there will be continuity in terms of its situation not only political but above all economic. This context will continue, and worsen, in 2019. The most likely scenario is to continue a “trial and error” policy that would include new announcements of specific measures that are incapable of containing the scale of hyperinflation.
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