The report Key Data for LATAM is elaborated by ATREVIA’s analysis and research team in order to provide the main information to understand the political and business reality of Latin America.
The most outstanding facts this month are:
- The challenge to boost structural reforms and the economic opening have returned Brazil to the international scene. A return to the world that is only tarnished by President Bolsonaro’s “politically incorrect” statements, which fail to overshadow the work of the economic team headed by Paulo Guedes.
- The current Ecuadorian crisis has two sides: one political and the other economic-social. From an economic point of view, government-driven measures (the decision to eliminate the fuel price subsidy) were necessary, inevitable although insufficient. From a political point of view, Lenín Moreno is going to be able to resist but he is going to be weakened on the brink of a 2020 with a clear pre electoral profile in which all the attention will be focused on the 2021 presidential elections. And therefore the bulk of the structural reforms still pending (labor reform for example) will be left to the next president.
- In Peru, the new elections do not seem likely to be able to solve the current political paralysis of the country in the short, medium or long term. In the short term, because of the doubts raised by the constitutionality of its decision. In the medium term, Vizcarra’s decision does not help to calm the situation because Peru is entering a stage of prolonged political uncertainty. Finally, in the long term, there is no guarantee that a new president in 2021 will be able to promote the structural reforms that the country needs given the atmosphere of polarization that Peru suffers and the lack of minimum consensus and a common idea to develop a country agenda.
- The slow progress of the Mexican economy will be conditioned in the coming months by six factors: the Federal Reserve Cuts, the Approval of the Income and Expenditure Budget Law, the tenders and the consequences of Brexit and the U.S.-China trade war.
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