The report Key Data for LATAM is elaborated by ATREVIA’s analysis and research team in order to provide the main information to understand the political and business reality of Latin America.
During this period the most outstanding facts were:
- In Argentina, the adjustment plan may be better or worse (everything indicates that the situation will calm down although in an environment of economic paralysis, at least in 2018); but this Government’s situation is more solid than that of its counterparts in 2001 and 1989. And that can be attributed to three reasons. First, because Macri’s leadership is more solid than Alfonsin’s. Second, because there is no alternative either inside or outside the ruling party. And third, Macri’s international support is much greater, especially because of the IMF’s financial injection.
- Geraldo Alckmin’s stalemate, who still has around 10% of vote intention, and the fall of Marina Silva, who does not take advantage of the disappearance of Lula’s candidacy outlines a highly polarized second round in Brazil: between Bolsonaro and someone on the left (the emergent Haddad or the now stagnant Gomes).
- Iván Duque’s government in Colombia is receiving the first criticism, since he is accused of slowness when starting his reform project. The main cause is due to a structural problem that the Uribist executive suffers and that the government will drag throughout his administration: his weakness in legislature where he achieved a weak majority, three votes away from getting qualified.
- The countercyclical program that López Obrador is promoting in Mexico for his future Government is going in the right direction (cutting public salaries and increasing investments in infrastructure, education and health). Its main handicap is that it will develop in an unfavorable international and domestic context (higher inflation, fewer investments, less tax revenues and lower growth).
- Venezuela needs international support and external financing to get out of the crisis, to maintain the stability of the currency and public finances. Given the weakness of the measures package implemented, getting funding remains difficult. To get out of this situation without outside help, Venezuela can only opt for economic heterodoxy with financing from China, which although important will not be enough.
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