The report Key Data for LATAM is elaborated by ATREVIA’s analysis and research team in order to provide the main information to understand the political and business reality of Latin America.
The most outstanding facts this month are:
- In Argentina, after a month of internal elections (PASO), favoritism toward Alberto Fernández to win the October 27 elections has increased. And this is so because the president and candidate for re-election, Mauricio Macri, has failed to contain Argentina’s economic downturn which has resulted in him not losing his chances as a competitive candidate.
- In Brazil, the Bolsonaro government, after a stormy start (bad relationship with Congress and worsening economic situation) seems to have stabilized in the latter part of this year (the economy has avoided the crisis and the improved relationship with the legislature has allowed it to be on the verge of moving the pension reform forward). Now the government’s challenge is to implement a second wave of structural reforms, for which it is vital to maintain the truce with Congress, the only way to find a way out of this set of systemic changes.
- In Bolivia, Evo Morales is the favorite to win the presidential elections in Bolivia. He has a chance at winning in the first round, but also of being forced to compete in a second round where the opposition confluence would make re-election considerably more difficult.
- In Ecuador, Lenín Moreno’s government, without a stable legislative base and fearful of confronting social contestation, is delaying the implementation of the core part of the adjustment. But everything points to the fact that in 2020 it will be implemented because if Ecuador fails to fulfill its commitment to improve the fiscal situation, the Monetary Fund could consider that the plan is suspended, which would lead to no new disbursements.
- In Mexico, López Obrador’s government will continue along the path of fiscal discipline and avoid any siren song of a populist nature. But at the same time it exhibits a downside: while it is true that the Mexican government’s management is going to be marked by orthodoxy, it is also going to be marked by voluntarism and the absence of structural reforms.
- In Venezuela, the recent internal and external events in Venezuela have increased the international isolation of the government of Nicolás Maduro, have lengthened over time the decision making around the economic crisis and have frozen the conversations between the executive and the opposition to find a political solution to the institutional crisis.
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