Latin American Keys is an informative and analytical summary regarding the political and economic situation in the Latin American region. These key takeaways, prepared monthly by ATREVIA´s Analysis and Research team, serve to be a useful tool in understanding the evolution of the political-institutional state of Latin America, a need that the pandemic has further exaggerated.
Reforms proposed by the current Latin American governments have marked last month’s agenda. In Mexico, the electoral action that seeks to take the Instituto Nacional Electoral’s power has entered into force, awakening all kinds of reactions and the manifestation of more than 500,000 people who came out to protest. The president of Chile Gabriel Boric faces another setback after performing a year in power, since his tax reform was rejected by the Chamber of Deputies. On the other hand, in Colombia the text of the labor reform is expected to be ready to be presented to Congress.
All the reforms have generated a polarization that does not seem to cease in other Latin American countries either. In Ecuador, the second attempt to depose President Guillermo Lasso is gaining momentum with the approval of the report to initiate an impeachment trial against him. Meanwhile, in Bolivia, Governor Luis Fernando Camacho enacted a law that allows him to continue his mandate from jail, where he is detained for having participated in the 2019 crisis that ended in the resignation of Evo Morales. In Colombia, the scandal of President Gustavo Petro’s son, who allegedly received money from drug trafficking for his father’s campaign, has aroused distrust within the same government coalition.
In Argentina, political divisions have arisen around the presidential campaign that is just around the corner. Candidates’ nomination, especially of the two parties that have the best chances of winning, such as ‘Frente de Todos’ and ‘Juntos por el Cambio’, has been complex and has revealed the internal disputes within each political force. This political context has had an impact on the Latin American economy due to the uncertainty generated.
Nevertheless, Mexico continues to have a positive outlook. On the other hand, Lula da Silva is struggling to lower interest rates in order to turn the economic situation around as soon as possible. Brazil, Chile and to a lesser extent Mexico, should be projected as the most optimistic in terms of inflation, while in Peru and Colombia the scenario is more complex. The outlook for Bolivia and Argentina is even more difficult given the structural particularities affecting these economies.