Moderate economic growth and a relatively relaxed electoral calendar will characterize the year in Latin America

Latin American Keys is an informative and analytical summary regarding the political and economic situation in the Latin American region. These key takeaways, prepared monthly by ATREVIA´s Analysis and Research team, serve to be a useful tool in understanding the evolution of the political-institutional state of Latin America.

According to projections from experts and international organizations, economic growth in Latin America, despite being positive, is expected to slow down in 2024. This, coupled with inflation data approaching the set targets, leads to expectations that central banks will continue to cut interest rates throughout the year.

In the political and social sphere, the most significant event was the declaration of an internal armed conflict in Ecuador, a measure taken in response to multiple violent acts caused by gangs related to drug trafficking. In line with this topic, 2024 is expected to be the year when tangible results are achieved in the ongoing peace process in Colombia. Additionally, inflation has finally reduced to
a single digit.

The increase in prices in 2023 was ultimately 4.66% in Mexico, while more names of candidates are emerging for this year’s presidential elections. On the other hand, former President Evo Morales will not be able to run for office in Bolivia, as ruled by the Plurinational Constitutional Court.

The new government of Argentina has already announced the first, and numerous, measures it intends to implement, focusing primarily on the liberalization of the economic system. Its effects are already being felt and analyzed in neighboring Uruguay, being more positive for the export sector but negative for tourism.

As projected by polls, the Chilean citizens rejected the new constitution proposal in a referendum. Meanwhile, in the face of optimistic economic forecasts, the Central Bank decided to cut the interest rate. In Brazil, the country’s monetary authority made the same decision, and labor market data continue to be positive.

Finally, the feared effects of the El Niño phenomenon in Peru will be later and more moderate than expected. The country has experienced several months of economic contraction, but the World Bank’s projections are hopeful for this year.

Click here to access the Latin American Keys summary.

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