Portuguese legislative elections 2022: Results and analysis

Background and Context

On October last year, the minority center-left government (Socialist Party, PS) was unable to reach an agreement to pass the 2022 State Budget, which was also voted against by left parties who had been close allies of the government. This led to the President of the Republic, choosing to dissolve Parliament, and scheduling early legislative elections for January 30th, 2022. The Socialist Party had the goal of strengthening its majority so as to no longer be dependent on parliamentary partners, with speculation also being made about the possibility of occasional alliances in the center with the PSD, if necessary. The snap elections were also a growth opportunity for several right-wing parties that have emerged in recent years (Iniciativa Liberal and Chega!). The wave of COVID-19 – Omicron was also striking in these elections, with a record number of votes from infected and isolated, although with no visible impact on voter turnout.

Legislative Election Results: Winners and Losers

On Sunday, January 30th, 2022, snap legislative elections were held for the Portuguese parliament. The Socialist Party (PS) won the elections, with 41,68% of the votes and an absolute majority of 117 seats out of 230, retaining its position as the largest party. In second place, the center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) had one of its worst results despite last weeks’ polls indicating a technical tie. António Costa, the current Prime Minister, will have the opportunity to form a government with a reinforced majority, which would be expected to last for the next four years. After the vote counting of the overseas  constituencies, the absolute majority of the Socialist Party will be officially confirmed. As such, a new Government could be expected to be sworn in by the end of February. Other winners of the night are the new parties within the right-wing spectrum: Chega (7,2%), and the “Liberal Initiative” (5%). To the left, Livre, a small party of the European Green Left, also fulfills its goals, electing its main candidate, Rui Tavares (1,3%).

There are important losses too. On the right, the center-right party PSD comes in second place (27,8%), falling short of their main goal: victory. Finally, CDS – People’s Party (CDS-PP), a party of the conservative right founded in 1975, lost
its entire parliamentary bench (1,6%). On the left, Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU), the coalition led by the
Communist Party (4,4%), and the Left Bloc (4,5%) stood out, losing more than half of their representation after 6
years of parliamentary support for the minority government of the Socialist Party. The People Animals Nature party
(PAN), dedicated to the defense of animal rights, lost at least 75% of their bench (1,5% vote share).

Consequences and Forecasts of the Results

1. Governing stability: With an absolute majority, the Socialist Party will guarantee stability to form a 4-year government without depending on other parties. This stability will be reflected both in governance and in the possibility of managing European funds, particularly in its relationship with the private sector. The Socialist Party has been known to be business friendly in their past absolute majority government (2009-2011) and is not expected to change. The guaranteed stability will be positive for the development of long-term investments and relationships with the private sector. Continuity of the digital transformation strategy at the national level is envisaged.

2. The Socialist Party as the only political stakeholder: With an absolute majority, we can expect less differences between proposed or intended government policy, and policy that is approved, given that there is no longer a need for coalition building. This majority can lead to clearer business-friendly government but may also lead to less engagement opportunities for those stakeholders that are not as well positioned, as the Government will no longer need to build up support from numerous stakeholders.3. More assertive opposition: we can expect a more aggressive opposition and potential increase in the rhetoric used along with political polarization, as opposition parties that seek to stake out their political space and erode the support of the PS. The loss of political representation of those parties in the left spectrum will probably lead to increased  lobbying and political pressure, both in Parliament and within the wider societal movements- with protests and strikes likely to increase in the coming years. Unlike its European counterparts, the Portuguese Socialist Party did notoriginate from labor or union movements, and these actors retain strong ties to the Communist Party and the Left Bloc. On the right, the enhanced diversity of parties in Parliament will represent an increase in the range of issues and groups of influence on the political agenda.

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